Morgan, Carlton don't need to tank to obtain a very favourable outcome towards their rebuilding phase.
Looking at their remaining 18 games I would suggest that they'll start favourites in only 6 of them. A 6 win season would have been good for 15th place last season. If they finish 15th this season and trade Bryce Gibbs, they'll get draft picks 4 and 5 and a soft draw next season.
Whilst its unlikely that any club will genuinely tank (nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more), don't underestimate the lure of high draft picks and 'weighted draw' privileges.
Once a team's finals hopes are dashed, a bottom 6 finish is an inviting proposition.
Compare the difference in this season's draw for the teams who finished 12th (Brisbane) and 13th (Slime).
Both teams have their 'blockbuster' game which is not negotiable (Bris v GC and Slime v Freo). The other 4 teams they face for a second time are:
Brisbane: North Melbourne, Richmond, Freo and Geelong.
Slime: St Kilda, Collingwood, Melbourne and Gold Coast.
A full strength Brisbane team would almost certainly lose all 4 of those games, whereas, the Slime should win 3 of those 4 games.
The question of GC/GWS is more vexing. Especially GWS.
A large number of high draft picks is no guarantee of success, but it helps, and we are talking about very high draft picks.
Their salary cap concession remains until 2018.
Their reserves team had a comfortable win last Saturday over competition door mats Belconnen, 18.20 (128) to 1.11 (17). Fortunately it was a soggy ground otherwise Belconnen might have copped a real hiding.
The Giants team contained 7 first round draft picks plus another 5 priority/zone/pre-listed players, all aged 19-21.
Of the 12: 6 were from Victoria, 2 from NSW, 2 from WA, 1 from Tassie and 1 from Ireland. With Melbourne only an hour away and no expansion team in Ireland (yet) 9 of those boys are likely to stay put for the forseeable future. The Tassie boy (Phillips) was BOG and could be making his league debut shortly. The 2 WA boys were Wilson (who signed a new contract last year) and McCarthy (who is in his first year at the club).
They have the opportunity to trade surplus stock for ready made players or even more very high draft picks.
Lack of opportunity may be our best bet to stop this juggernaut.
They would have to be really, really, really terrible at running a football club to stuff this up.
Here's hoping.
